In a sign that the economy has been holding steady this quarter against a previously frightening economic crisis, the United States dollar has unexpectedly lost a noticeable percentage of its value against the Guyana dollar over the past 30 days.
The exchange rate which had peaked at GYD$219 to US$1 last quarter on the world market, and by as much as GYD$250 to US$1 on the black market, has now witness a shocking slide to GYD$205 and GYD$209 to US$1 respectively, based upon currency trading data seen from the US Federal Reserve Bank.
The average exchange rate has thus been currently pegged at around GYD$207 to US$1, with some analysts predicting a further slide to a possible $203 to one, over the holidays.
By comparison, while the rest of the Caribbean has been struggling to stave off periodic but miniature declines in their currency value, which has been additionally affected by lost tourism revenue due to damages from Hurricane Irma, Guyana was fortunate to somehow rise above a short-lived currency crisis, which has naturally brought an unexpected halt to inflation.
While much data is not available on what could have caused the sudden slide in the US currency value against the Guyana Dollar, Cyndi Downer, a former world market currency analyst at the United States Federal Reserve bank opine that the current holiday season must have forced the private sector to stop choking on their reserves and simply pour large sums of it into holiday investments.
In her view, and if that is the case, the Guyana Dollar will continue to hold steady even into March or April 2018, when other economic factors will determine its continued stability thereafter.
However, persons who have stockpiled large swaths of US currency, which they may have purchased at high black market value in recent times, stands to lose a lot on their reserve Forex, unless they can rally out for several months, but with no guarantee that the US dollar will regain its mark against the Guyana dollar anytime soon, or at all.
She predicted that should the US Dollar slide even a mere 0.26 percent further against the Guyana dollar this holiday, financial hoarders may most likely choose to accept their losses, and quickly dump their reserve US currency back into the local market; – an act that can result in a further slide depending on volume.